Connor Hellebuyck has spent the better part of a decade establishing himself as one of the most valuable goaltenders in hockey. He has won three Vezina Trophies, captured the Hart Trophy in 2024-25, and consistently performed at a level well above what would be expected based on the quality of shots he faced. That résumé makes his current situation in Winnipeg particularly interesting for teams looking for an upgrade in goal.
Hellebuyck is now 33 years old and coming off a 2025-26 season in which his traditional statistics declined considerably. He finished the year with a 23-23-11 record, a 2.86 goals-against average and an .895 save percentage, easily the lowest save percentage of his NHL career. That came immediately after a remarkable 2024-25 season in which he posted a .925 save percentage, 2.00 goals-against average and eight shutouts while winning both the Vezina and Hart Trophies.
For any team considering acquiring Hellebuyck, the challenge is determining what that decline actually means. His traditional numbers suggest a goaltender who took an enormous step backward, but the underlying data paints a more complicated picture. Hellebuyck was certainly not as dominant as he had been in previous seasons, but several important metrics suggest that his .895 save percentage may overstate just how far his performance actually fell.
The Decline Was Real, But the Underlying Numbers Were Better
Goals Saved Above Expected is particularly useful when evaluating Hellebuyck because it accounts for the quality of shots a goaltender faces rather than treating every shot equally. That is important when trying to separate a goaltender's individual performance from the defensive environment around him.
Hellebuyck had been exceptional by this measure for several consecutive seasons. Using PuckPedia's model for consistency, he produced approximately 30.8 Goals Saved Above Expected in 2022-23, 33.1 in 2023-24 and 39.6 during his Hart-winning 2024-25 season. His performance dropped dramatically in 2025-26, but he still finished at approximately +5.5 GSAx. Another expected-goals model placed him at roughly +5.8.
| Season | Games Played | Save Percentage | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 64 | .920 | +30.8 |
| 2023-24 | 60 | .921 | +33.1 |
| 2024-25 | 63 | .925 | +39.6 |
| 2025-26 | 57 | .895 | +5.5 |
The decline from nearly 40 goals saved above expected to approximately five is significant and should not be dismissed. Hellebuyck was nowhere near his previous level of dominance last season. At the same time, remaining on the positive side of GSAx is an important distinction. Despite a save percentage below .900, he still prevented more goals than an average goaltender would have been expected to allow given the shots he faced.
That makes his season different from one in which both the traditional and underlying numbers collapsed. The data indicates that Hellebuyck declined substantially from an extraordinarily high baseline rather than suddenly becoming a significantly below-average NHL goaltender.
His High-Danger Numbers Are Particularly Interesting
Perhaps the most encouraging part of Hellebuyck's 2025-26 profile is how he performed against the most dangerous scoring opportunities. Shot-quality data indicates that he faced 194 high-danger shots carrying approximately 60.6 expected goals and surrendered only 39 goals on those opportunities.
That represents approximately 21.6 goals saved above expected on high-danger chances alone. In other words, Hellebuyck continued to perform extremely well when opposing teams generated the types of opportunities most likely to become goals.
This is consistent with what he had done during his dominant 2024-25 season. NHL EDGE had Hellebuyck at an .845 high-danger save percentage that year, fourth among qualifying NHL goaltenders. He also posted a .911 save percentage from midrange and led the NHL with 418 saves on long-range attempts.
The unusual part of his 2025-26 season was that much of the damage came from less dangerous shots. On medium- and low-danger opportunities combined, Hellebuyck faced approximately 1,353 shots and surrendered 123 goals against roughly 106.9 expected goals. That works out to approximately 16 more goals allowed than expected from those areas.
That distribution matters when considering whether his decline is likely to be permanent. A goaltender losing his ability to handle lateral movement, traffic and high-danger opportunities could potentially indicate a deterioration in the physical skills required to play the position at an elite level. Hellebuyck's profile was different. He continued to outperform expectations on the hardest chances while giving away significant value on shots that he historically stopped at a much higher rate.
It does not guarantee that those results will reverse, but it provides a plausible reason to believe that his .895 save percentage is not necessarily his new baseline.
The Multi-Year Track Record Still Matters
Goaltending is one of the most volatile positions in hockey, which makes larger samples particularly important. In Hellebuyck's case, the larger sample is overwhelmingly positive.
Before last season, Hellebuyck had produced three consecutive seasons with roughly 30 or more Goals Saved Above Expected in the model cited above. During that period, his save percentages were .920, .921 and .925. Few goaltenders have combined that level of workload with that level of shot-stopping performance for such an extended period.
His 2024-25 season was the peak. Hellebuyck went 47-12-3 with a 2.00 goals-against average and .925 save percentage while recording eight shutouts. He won his third Vezina Trophy and became the first goaltender since Carey Price to win the Hart Trophy.
The contrast between that season and 2025-26 is enormous, but it also demonstrates why one poor year should be evaluated carefully. A team acquiring Hellebuyck would not be betting on a goaltender who was elite five years ago. It would be betting on a goaltender who was arguably the best player at his position immediately before his down season.
There are still reasons for caution. His quality-start percentage fell from 72.6 percent during his Hart-winning season to 56.1 percent in 2025-26, and the struggles were not confined to a single short stretch. After opening the season with a .913 save percentage through his first 14 appearances, his save percentage remained below .900 over each of the subsequent quarters of his season. That makes it more difficult to dismiss the entire year as the product of one disastrous month.
His Olympic Performance Adds Another Layer
Hellebuyck's performance at the 2026 Winter Olympics makes his season even more difficult to interpret. Playing for the United States, he started five games and finished the tournament with a 1.18 goals-against average and .956 save percentage while helping the Americans win gold.
Five games are obviously not enough to erase 57 NHL appearances. International tournaments are small samples, and goaltending statistics can fluctuate dramatically over short periods. Still, the performance is relevant because it occurred during the same season in which Hellebuyck's NHL numbers had deteriorated.
At minimum, the tournament demonstrated that Hellebuyck was still capable of producing elite results against high-level competition. When considered alongside his high-danger numbers in Winnipeg, it provides additional evidence that the physical ability that made him the NHL's best goaltender one year earlier had not simply disappeared.
The Contract Is Where the Risk Becomes More Significant
Evaluating Hellebuyck as a player is only part of the equation for a potential acquiring team. His contract makes the decision considerably more complicated.
Hellebuyck carries an $8.5 million cap hit and has five seasons remaining on the seven-year extension he signed with Winnipeg in 2023. That means an acquiring team would be committing significant cap space to him through his late 30s.
At his 2024-25 level, an $8.5 million cap hit is easy to justify. A goaltender saving approximately 40 goals above expected while starting more than 60 games provides enormous value. Even if Hellebuyck rebounds to something between his 2024-25 and 2025-26 levels, the contract could still provide strong short-term value for a team trying to win immediately.
The later years are much more difficult to project. Goaltender aging is not perfectly linear, and Hellebuyck has handled one of the NHL's heaviest workloads throughout his career. A team acquiring him would therefore need to consider not only whether he can rebound next season, but how much value he is likely to provide at ages 35, 36 and 37.
His no-movement clause is another important factor because it gives Hellebuyck substantial control over his destination. That could limit Winnipeg's pool of potential trade partners and affect the eventual acquisition price.
What the Data Says About Hellebuyck Today
There is no statistical argument for pretending Hellebuyck's 2025-26 season was business as usual. His Goals Saved Above Expected declined dramatically, his save percentage fell 30 points, his quality-start percentage dropped and he failed to sustain his usual level of NHL performance over the second half of the season. At 33 years old, those are legitimate warning signs for any team considering a major investment.
The underlying numbers, however, are considerably less alarming than the .895 save percentage suggests. Hellebuyck still finished with positive Goals Saved Above Expected, remained extremely effective against high-danger scoring chances and performed above expectation while shorthanded. His greatest weakness was an unusual decline against medium- and lower-danger shots, an area in which his historical performance provides at least some reason to expect improvement.
His recent history matters as well. Hellebuyck was not merely a good goaltender before last season. He had been one of the NHL's most dominant players at the position for several years, culminating in a Hart Trophy season in 2024-25. His .956 save percentage at the Olympics also provided a small but noteworthy reminder of the ceiling that remains.
For a team interested in acquiring Hellebuyck, the numbers therefore present a fairly clear trade-off. The player who produced nearly 40 Goals Saved Above Expected in 2024-25 may never return in exactly the same form, and the combination of age and contract term creates meaningful long-term risk. But the evidence from 2025-26 does not support treating Hellebuyck as though he suddenly became a sub-.900-calibre goaltender either.
The most reasonable projection likely sits somewhere between those two seasons. If Hellebuyck can recover even a substantial portion of the value he provided from 2022-23 through 2024-25, he can still materially change the outlook of a contender. The question for an acquiring team is how much it is willing to surrender — and how much long-term contract risk it is willing to accept — to find out.
For teams built to win now, that could make Connor Hellebuyck one of the most fascinating trade targets on the market.