Four dynasty goalie targets whose value becomes clearer when you look beyond save percentage.
A .901 save percentage can make a goalie look replaceable. It can also hide a season in which he stopped considerably more goals than the quality of his workload would suggest. That gap is where a dynasty trade conversation gets interesting.
Using MoneyPuck’s goalie data, my shortlist heading into 2026–27 is Jet Greaves, Jakub Dobes, Joel Hofer and Spencer Knight. These are conditional buying targets, not a claim that every fantasy league undervalues them. MoneyPuck does not measure acquisition cost, and a good goalie stops being a good trade when the asking price assumes every optimistic outcome.
What the Numbers Tell Us
Goals saved above expected (GSAx) is expected goals against minus actual goals allowed. A positive number means the goalie conceded fewer goals than MoneyPuck’s shot-quality model expected. GSAx per 60 minutes helps compare performance across different workloads; total GSAx shows how much value accumulated over those minutes. Neither guarantees next season’s results.
1. Jet Greaves — The Best Blend of Performance and Workload
2024–25: 11 GP | +14.46 GSAx | +1.314 GSAx/60
Greaves is my first call if a manager still values him like a goalie who has only flashed potential. The most useful development was not maintaining his extraordinary 2024–25 rate. It was remaining comfortably positive while his appearances increased from 11 to 55.
His GSAx per 60 fell sharply, which is exactly why that earlier sample should never have been projected across a full season. But +16.46 goals saved above expected in the larger sample gives the buying argument a much sturdier foundation. You can like the player without needing him to reproduce an unsustainable heater.
Columbus signed the 25-year-old to a three-year, $15 million contract in July. That commitment strengthens the case for continuity, although it does not promise a particular number of starts.
Fantasy Takeaway: BUY IF HE IS STILL PRICED AS UNPROVEN.
I would accept a meaningful acquisition cost for a roster needing help now and over the next several seasons. I would stop short of paying an elite-goalie premium: one substantial season still leaves room for regression. The discount needs to come from lingering skepticism, not from pretending his breakout went unnoticed.
2. Jakub Dobes — Look Beneath the .901
2024–25: 16 GP | +9.03 GSAx | +0.619 GSAx/60
Dobes offers the clearest example here of why raw save percentage can undersell performance. MoneyPuck assigned his workload 134.26 expected goals against; he allowed 117. That difference is much more encouraging than a quick glance at .901 suggests.
He also followed a positive 16-game season with a positive 43-game season. His rate declined as the sample expanded, but +0.410 GSAx per 60 still leads this four-goalie shortlist. The argument is not that every difficult shot is fully captured by a model. It is that dismissing him on save percentage alone leaves useful information out of the decision.
Montreal extended Dobes for three seasons, covering 2027–28 through 2029–30. That makes it harder to expect a hidden-prospect price. The opportunity exists only if your league still gives more weight to his ordinary-looking save percentage than to the broader evidence.
Fantasy Takeaway: TARGET A SAVE-PERCENTAGE DISCOUNT.
Ask what his manager wants before assuming he is affordable. I would buy him as a developing long-term option with a credible performance base, while leaving room in the valuation for workload competition and year-to-year volatility. Do not pay for a guaranteed 60-start future.
3. Joel Hofer — A Breakout Worth Buying Carefully
2024–25: 31 GP | −4.34 GSAx | −0.155 GSAx/60
Hofer’s appeal comes from improved results alongside a larger workload. His GSAx swung from negative to positive as appearances increased from 31 to 46. That is a more compelling buying case than a strong percentage produced in a handful of games.
The caution is equally clear: the previous season was below expectation. Unlike Greaves and Dobes, Hofer does not have consecutive positive seasons in this comparison. A buyer should recognize the improvement without treating it as an established performance floor.
St. Louis still lists both Hofer and Jordan Binnington among its contracted goalies. My interpretation is that Hofer’s recent performance supports a case for opportunity, but the contract list alone cannot settle the workload split.
Fantasy Takeaway: BUY AT A PRICE THAT ALLOWS FOR SHARED STARTS.
He is attractive when the other manager’s valuation still reflects a secondary role. If the offer already prices in an undisputed starting job and another step forward, the margin has disappeared. For a contender, keep enough depth to survive an uneven distribution of starts.
4. Spencer Knight — Quietly Repeatable Underlying Results
2024–25: 38 GP | +6.90 GSAx | +0.188 GSAx/60
Knight’s case is less dramatic and, for that reason, easy to overlook. His GSAx per 60 barely changed between seasons, while his appearances increased from 38 to 54. The higher total GSAx came with more work rather than a huge jump in the underlying rate.
That does not establish an elite ceiling. It does give a dynasty buyer two seasons of positive results at a similar rate, which is useful when deciding whether an ordinary-looking .902 tells the whole story.
Knight signed a three-year, $17.5 million extension beginning in 2026–27. I view the commitment as support for his place in Chicago’s plans, rather than evidence that fantasy wins must follow.
Fantasy Takeaway: BUY FOR THE PERFORMANCE BASE; PRICE WINS SEPARATELY.
He fits a patient roster that can tolerate uncertainty in team-driven results. In leagues heavily weighted toward wins, your bid should reflect the team outlook as well as the goalie. In save-volume formats, his recent workload deserves attention, but appearances alone do not guarantee future saves.
Pay for Evidence, Leave Room for Upside
Greaves is my preferred all-around target, Dobes has the strongest shot-quality-adjusted rate of the four, Hofer offers an opportunity bet with a less consistent recent record, and Knight supplies a comparatively steady two-season signal. That is a buying shortlist, not a universal dynasty ranking.
Before making an offer, translate each player into your league’s scoring. GSAx is not a fantasy category in most formats, and it cannot promise wins, shutouts, health or starts. A rebuilding manager can accept more uncertainty in next season’s return; a contender needs enough usable appearances to support the purchase immediately.
The right deal pays for what the goalie has demonstrated and leaves some future improvement for you to benefit from. If the seller wants the full breakout price already, move to the next name.